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驻卡拉奇总领事李碧建在巴媒发表署名文章
2020-12-08 18:50

  12月7日,驻卡拉奇总领事李碧建在巴基斯坦《商业纪事报》发表《中国增长新范式》(China's New Growth Paradigm )的署名文章,介绍中国共产党第十九届五中全会审议通过的加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局的内涵、背景、意义和举措。全文如下:

  中文如下:

  中国增长新范式——双循环

  2020年10月底,中国共产党第十九届五中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议》提出,要加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。这是对中国“十四五”和未来更长时期经济发展战略、路径作出的重大调整完善,对于中国实现更高质量、更高效率、更加公平、更可持续、更为安全的发展,对于促进世界经济繁荣,都会产生重要而深远的影响。

  一、“双循环”的内涵:更大范围和更深层次对外开放

  所谓“双循环”,即以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,其中国内循环是基础,国际市场是延伸,国内大循环为国内国际双循环提供坚实基础。发挥中国超大规模市场优势,将为世界各国提供更加广阔的市场机会;依托国内大循环吸引全球商品和资源要素,打造新的国际合作和竞争优势。因此国内大循环绝不是自我封闭、自给自足,也不是各地区的小循环,而是坚持开放合作的双循环;通过强化开放合作,更加紧密地同世界经济联系互动,提升国内大循环的效率和水平。可以说,推动双循环必须坚持实施更大范围、更宽领域、更深层次对外开放。

  二、变局催兴替:选择“双循环”的背景

  第一,适应经济发展阶段变化的主动选择。不同经济发展阶段对应不同的需求结构、产业结构和技术体系,要求发展方式与时俱进。一方面,一个经济体越大,出口依存度就会越低。中国经济也不例外,从2007年的33%降至2019年的17%,82.6%的国内产出已经在国内消化、国内循环。另一方面,目前中国人均GDP超过1万美元,40年间增长33倍,稳居世界中等收入国家行列,中国需求结构和生产函数发生重大变化,结构转换复杂性上升。为解决这一矛盾,要求发展转向更多依靠创新驱动,不断提高供给质量和水平。这是大国经济发展的关键,中国须主动适应变化,努力攻坚克难,加快构建新发展格局。

  第二,应对错综复杂国际环境变化的战略举措。当前,新冠肺炎疫情影响广泛深远,逆全球化趋势更加明显,全球产业链、供应链面临重大冲击,风险加大。面对外部环境变化带来的新矛盾新挑战,必须顺势而为调整经济发展路径,在努力打通国际循环的同时,进一步畅通国内大循环,提升经济发展的自主性、可持续性,增强韧性,保持我国经济平稳健康发展。

  三、新局育新机:实施“双循环”的潜力

  从内循环看,经过改革开放40多年发展,中国经济快速成长,国内大循环的条件和基础日益完善。从需求方看,消费和投资引擎释放新动力。中国拥有14亿人口和4亿多中等收入群体,是全球最大、最具发展潜力的市场,每年为世界增长贡献30%左右。在海外疫情回潮的影响下,旅游、医疗和教育等服务消费进口需求料将持续回流,带动国内相关服务业的需求扩张。以旅游业为例,据测算,如果以2019年为基准,旅游服务逆差能够转化为内需,则有望每年多贡献约1.15万亿产值,直接创造约490万个就业岗位。社会消费零售总额增速推升至15%左右。从供给方看,中国储蓄率仍然较高,拥有全球最完整、规模最大的工业体系和完善的配套能力,拥有1.3亿户市场主体和1.7亿多受过高等教育或拥有各种专业技能的人才。从研发能力看,经合组织发布的数据显示,中国的研发经费投入已长时间仅次于美国,稳居世界第二。中国一国的研发经费,甚至还高于欧盟28国(含英国)研发经费总和。2019年中国投入研发经费首破2万亿元大关,已占GDP的2.23%,20年间增长23.7倍。

  从外循环看,中国出口展现新韧性。2020年,在全球疫情冲击之下,中国出口表现远超市场预期。据IMF最新预测,2021年,全球经济将触底反弹,预计增速较2020年提振9.6%,贸易增速预计18.7%。中国作为全球价值链体系的三大枢纽之一,其外需亦将水涨船高。

  由此可见,中国“双循环”并非走向“闭关自守”,而是选择性通过向内发力,为高水平开放代开向外空间。中国已具备实现内部大循环、促进内外双循环的诸多条件,只要利用好大国经济纵深广阔的优势,充分发挥规模和集聚效应,可以释放巨大而持久的内需动能,推动全球经济稳步复苏和增长。

  四、实施双循环的举措

  (一)推动科技创新在畅通循环中发挥关键作用。要强化国家战略科技力量,加强基础研究、注重原始创新。要强化企业创新主体地位,打好关键核心技术攻坚战,完善产业链。要发挥我国市场优势,促进新技术产业化规模化应用。充分激发人才创新活力,要建设高质量教育体系,要加强国际科技交流与合作。

  (二)推动供给创造和引领需求,实现供需良性互动。畅通国民经济循环要着力优化供给结构,改善供给质量,优先改造传统产业,发展战略性新兴产业,加快发展现代服务业。要依法平等保护产权,为企业家捕捉新需求、发展新技术、研发新产品、创造新模式提供良好环境,提升企业核心竞争力。要加快培育完整内需体系,增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用。发挥投资对优化供给结构的关键作用,拓展投资空间,优化投资结构,推动企业设备更新和技术改造。

  (三)推动更高水平的对外开放,更深度融入全球经济。要进一步扩大市场准入,创造更加公平的市场环境,在更高水平上引进外资。要加快推进贸易创新发展,提升出口质量,扩大进口,促进经常项目和国际收支基本平衡。推进共建“一带一路”高质量发展,推动构建人类命运共同体,形成更加紧密稳定的全球经济循环体系,促进各国共享全球化深入发展机遇和成果。

  跌宕起伏的2020年即将成为发展旧模式的终点站,2021年中国“双循环”新格局将是开拓世界新潮流的起跑线。中国将继续秉持开放、合作、共赢的信念,坚定不移全面扩大开放,将更有效率地实现内外市场联通、要素资源共享,让中国市场成为世界的市场、共享的市场、大家的市场。中国增长新范式将为包括巴基斯坦在内的世界各国提供巨大的发展机遇,为国际合作注入新动能。

  英文如下:

  China's New Growth Paradigm

  By LI BIJIAN on December 7th, 2020

  At the end of October 2020, the Proposals of Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Goals for 2035 adopted by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of CPC, proposed to accelerate the establishment of a "dual circulation" development pattern in which domestic and foreign markets reinforcing each other with the domestic market as the mainstay. This is a major shift of China's economic development strategy, which will have far-reaching impact on China's efforts to achieve higher quality, more efficient, more equal, more sustainable and more secure growth, as well as on the growth of the world economy.

  Dual Circulation ( DC): Open up further

  China's DC strategy refers broadly to two circles of economic activity-internal and external, aims at actively foster a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other, of which the domestic circulation will be the foundation while the international circulation will be the extension. Giving full play to the advantages of the enormous domestic markets, China will provide more opportunities for the world, attract global commodity and resources, and strengthen international cooperation and enhance the competitive advantages. Therefore, the domestic circulation is by no mean a full-scale pivot away from global economic integration or self-sufficiency, nor it is a small circulation in various regions. Instead, it is a dual circulation by broadening openness and deepening cooperation to interact more closely with the world economy and raise the efficiency of great domestic circulation. In a word, the implementation of DC must adhere to the strategy of opening up in a larger scale, among broader fields and at a deeper level.

  Background of Adopting DC

  Firstly, DC is the active adaption to the new economic growth stage. Different economic stages correspond to specific demand and industrial structures, and technological systems, and entails development methods to keep pace with the times. On one hand, the larger an economy is, the lower its export dependence will be. China's export dependence fell from 33% in 2007 to 17% in 2019, and 82.6% of domestic output circulated domestically. On the other hand, China's per capita GDP currently exceeds $10,000, surging by 33 times in 40 years and has become a middle-income country. China's demand structure and production function have undergone drastic changes. It is required that the growth shifts to put innovation as the main driver of the economy, and constantly improve the quality of the supply side. Secondly, DC is of strategic importance to deal with the complicated external turbulence. With the rising global uncertainty caused by the Covid-19 and the increasing anti-globalization trends, the global industrial and supply chain are facing drastic shock and swelling risks. In the midst of external crises and challenges, China has to take the initiative to adjust the strategy, and seize and create opportunities. While striving to open up the international circulation, China will simultaneously bolster indigenous capabilities, enhance sustainability and resilience to maintain the steady and healthy growth of the country's economy.

  The Favourable Conditions to Implement DC

  From the perspective of internal circulation, China has witnessed rapidly economic growth which has laid down an increasingly perfect foundation for the domestic circulation. From the demand side, the ever-expanding consumption and investment releases new impetus. With a population of 1.4 billion and a middle-income group of more than 400 million, China has become the largest and most attractive market in the world, contributing about 30% to the world economic growth. With the existence of the pandemic, the import demand for services such as tourism, medical treatment and education are expected to return constantly, driving the new round of expansion of domestic demand for service industries. Taking the tourism industry as an example, it is estimated that if the tourism service deficit can be converted into domestic demand based on the data in 2019, it is expected to contribute about 1.15 trillion yuan in output and directly create about 4.9 million jobs. The growth rate of the total social consumer retail sales has increased to around 15%. From the supply side, China's saving rate is still very high and has the most complete and largest industrial system and supporting capabilities in the world. China owns 130 million market players and over 170 million highly educated or professional talents. In terms of R&D capabilities, data released by OECD shows that China's investment in R&D has been second only to the US, ranking second in the world, which is even higher than the total R&D expenditure of the 28 EU countries. In 2019, China's investment in R&D recorded 2 trillion yuan ($290 billion), accounting for 2.23% of GDP, an increase of 23.7 times in 20 years. From the perspective of external circulation, China's exports reveal new resilience. In 2020, China's exports are even better than the market expectations inspite of Covid-19. According to the latest forecast by the IMF, the global economy will bottom out and rebound in 2021,with the expected GDP annual growth rate of 9.6% and trade growth rate of 18.7% comparing with that of 2020. As one of the three major hubs of the global value chains, China's external demand will also surge against this trend. China's DC will emphasize on both internationalization and self-sufficiency, bolstering indigenous capabilities to achieve a higher-level opening up. China has advantages to realize the goal of the dual circulations. As long as China makes full use of the scale and agglomeration effects as a large economy, it is sure to release huge and sustainable domestic demand momentum and simultaneously promote the steady recovery and growth of the global economy.

  Key Measures to Realize DC

  --Promote new circulation driven by innovation. Key measures are: enhancing the scientific and technological strength, encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship, strengthening basic research, and putting the enterprises as the main players, making breakthroughs in core science and technologies and improving the production chains; making full use of the huge market advantages and promoting the high-end industrialization of new technologies in large scale; fully stimulating the innovative vitality of talents, establishing a high-quality education system; strengthening international scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation.

  --Expand supply and demand to realize a virtuous interaction. Efforts shall be made to focus on optimizing the supply structure, improving the quality of supply, giving priority to the transformation of traditional industries, developing strategically emerging industries, and accelerating the growth of modern service industries; protect property rights in accordance with the law, provide a good environment for entrepreneurs to capture new needs, develop new technologies, and enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises; accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system and strengthen the fundamental role of consumption; give full play to the key role of investment in optimizing the supply and investment structure.

  --Promote a higher level of opening and deeper integration with the global economy. Further expand market access, create a fairer market environment. Enhance foreign trade, improve export quality, expand imports, and achieve balance of current account and international payments. Promote the high-quality development of the "Belt and Road" Initiative, strive to build a community with a shared future for mankind and form a stable and open global economic system.

  The turbulent 2020 is passing as the end of the old development mode while the year of 2021 will witness China's DC creating a new trend in the world. China will stay committed to openness and win-wan cooperation, expand all-round opening up and explore more efficient ways to turn the Chinese market into a market for the world, shared by all, and accessible to all. China's new development paradigm will provide huge growth opportunities for all the countries around the world, including Pakistan, and inject new momentum into international cooperation.

  (The writer is China's consul-general based in Karachi)

  Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

  英文链接:https://www.brecorder.com/news/40038013

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